A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
